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it is estimated will come in 2010

The economy is considered a social science, and therefore any forecast is always subject to the intricacies of the mind of millions of people, both locally and globally. The decisions of rulers, a natural disaster, terrorist attack or just the unpredictability of certain operators can modify any budget, both for and against. As is known, which for some is a natural disaster (drought in the northern hemisphere) to others is a huge comparative advantage (which do not give such a drought in the southern hemisphere).

We parentheses in this to emphasize that the statements made earlier this month by former President Kirchner on the legal uncertainty in the core countries in which there was the financial crisis are, in our view, profoundly mistaken. The reasons for the risks do not have to do with legal certainty, otherwise there would never be this . Have other reasons to do such, with respect for legality. laws can not be applied retroactively, contracts can not be altered unilaterally and without the right to claim, the laws can not be canceled as if they had existed or expropriations are possible under sentence based on law and previously compensated. If someone buys bonds and then loses money because it lowers its price, this is a risk inherent in the operation, and no legal uncertainty. Since no one seems to have occupied much of the statements discussed and seem very serious, is that we make this brief clarification.

Argentina is a quagmire in terms of legal certainty, to the point that the head of the Cabinet of Ministers has just ignored a court order on the grounds that the order was unconstitutional. Become a minister appellate court. The anger and the diatribes against a U.S. official are indescribable poignancy since they only try to kill the messenger, which of course has not acted on its own initiative, but what he said has been said many times before now reports of all types and color. And that the country offers no guarantee of anything is a reality that we have grown tired of repeating. Nothing is res judicata in Argentina, gentlemen.

In November, the primary public spending has grown no less than 37%. A frightening figure that does not fit all in the political and economic reality of a country devastated by the lack of investment.

The expectation is precisely not to cut spending. The recent sanctions of new taxes, moratoriums and bleaches point to raise more money to keep spending. It is obvious that nevertheless is not enough.

Some subsidies will be reduced or disappear, as has been happening. Even at the cost of disparate rate increases.

The Argentine government has appropriated funds of the administrators, the current collection of those who had freely chosen to continue in the mixed system (State -AFJP). Has enacted new taxes to technology. Has just approved a payment plan for tax and pension obligations between January 2008 and October 2009. And the next day passed a new facilities plan for tax advances, which were not included in the plan the previous day.

Meanwhile, the extra passive class receives one-time allocations are given universal child and tries to ingratiate himself with the large number of population is under the poverty line handing out gifts.

believe this will continue in the same line. It is possible that inflation is well over 20% in 2010. Perhaps the GDP grows (or rather, reclaim) 3 or 4%, which is the estimated fall 2009. That percentage in an international friendly with the excess liquidity in the world at ridiculous rates, is really insignificant.

The country will not burst in 2010 (except some barbaric type Resolution 125, you never know with these people). The international framework, although our view is still in crisis, is far more favorable than it was a few months ago.

Announced investments in oil exploration and also provides review plans to encourage consumption. At the same time, from the Ministry of Internal Trade is trying to fix prices and likely to close more exports, while continuing seamless import difficulties in order to ensure a trade surplus.

The provision of central bank reserves by a decree of necessity and urgency has provoked lively, a rise in government securities at the prospect of an assured collection . But at the same time has meaning (a) an enslavement to the Central Bank autonomy, (b) the insistence on using NUD while Congress is in recess and therefore can not endorse or reject the measure, (c) evidence that the Argentine State is not able to guarantee payment by the fiscal surplus or new financing.

is obvious that the use of such reserves reduces the quality of the local currency, which is the person who, together with Lebacs (totaling about 15,000 million dollars). The name freely available in any way is appropriate, because the state securities given in exchange for 10 years which aims to guarantee to the Central Bank the return of such funds. Thus, currently 44% of the assets of the entity are securities. And all these operators are well aware.

At the international level but there are many who argue that the worst of the crisis has passed , the truth is that the stimulus to consumption and credit make a reality that can only lead the creation of a new bubble. In our opinion, the crisis has passed and far enough to do so. not pretend to be naysayers, but realistic. While interest rates are set artificially virtually zero for the dollar, the debt in that currency will grow and with it prices will rise and bonds, thus forming the impression that everything is better in the world, when in fact such an improvement is that the authorities (especially American) facilitate borrowing at rates that do not correspond to market risk, which is exactly what happened to the famous crisis mortgages.

Our government is desperate to access credit, if only at a rate of about 9 or 10% in dollars, but this should resolve the delayed agreement with the Paris Club, the situation of so-called hold outs and even fix many with the IMF. And, like it or not, is trying to do. With this test, if anyone could fit any doubt that the policy of the celebration of the little hair to the field of debt can only lead to ostracism. And that lack of investment in Argentina, not the result of cuckoos from various sources to try to sink, but our own laziness and immorality by not honoring the credit.

Kirchner The Lavagna or made fun of the world and in parallel at the National Congress did that fateful afternoon when Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, in as President of the Nation announced the default to the cheers of all present, they were happy not to honor the debts for the next day, back to give sermons to the ordinary. Today is Nestor Kirchner repeated to anyone who will listen to the renegotiation of debt made us save you U.S. $ 67,000 million. Is that appropriate what is not for us for some is in fact save money. But all this we are paying more than, in the absence of credit, in the absence of investment, given the lack of credibility at all levels and in the world.

We have almost 10 years without investment of stem in Argentina. The state has eaten assets, literally. Lowered the oil and gas reserves are on the brink of collapse in electric energy. Have been emptied retirement savings (again, as in the years 50), have liquid savings of the unwary who believed in the system. Capital flight has been a constant in the last two years.

government ads have been so many and one is forgotten. And none came to fruition. Since home loans or cars or washing machines and cookers. Or bike. From incentives to SMEs from the Banco de la Nacion to various enterprises and cooperatives. Everything. They have tried everything. And we believe will continue in that line. Now it seeks to do business, so dinner at Olives. YPF to invest, invest some industrial invest the supermarket. Ultimately, unless you change something in governmental conception, based on the arbitrary and the press, it is difficult to achieve anything other than an investment from friends, but through subsidized government loans and tax related benefits .

really regret conveying the reality in these terms. But that's what we sincerely believe and try to substantiate. We hope, at least, be wrong.

Source: Hector Studio B. Trillo

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Law Sustainable economy that Spain will have a responsible company seal

The English government intends to create a seal of "socially responsible" as one of the measures included in the bill Sustainable Economy.

The bill Sustainable Economy Chapter VI dedicated to corporate social responsibility, and includes an article on the sustainable management of public enterprises.

Thus, according to the text released today by the Ministry of Economy and Finance English, the government will promote social responsibility in companies, especially SMEs, by setting "at its disposal a set of characteristics and indicators for self-evaluation" according to international standards.

For the development of these indicators, the executive will, "according to the recommendations in this regard, take the State Board of Corporate Social Responsibility (CER)." An agency that ought to be emulated in the rest of Latin America.

Thus companies that meet a minimum level in these indicators may ser acreditadas como empresas socialmente responsables por parte del Observatorio que debe poner en marcha el mencionado Consejo.

Pero, este anteproyecto de ley no se preocupa de la empresa privada sino también tratará de promover la gestión sostenible de las empresas públicas, que deberán de adaptarse a esta norma en el plazo de un año después de su entrada en vigor.

Entre las medidas que tendrán que asumir estas empresas figura desde la elaboración de memorias de responsabilidad social anuales, revisar los procesos de producción de bienes y servicios aplicando criterios de gestión medioambiental; favorecer principios de responsabilidad social entre sus proveedores; o incluir in their recruitment processes performance conditions relating to emission levels of greenhouse gases and maintaining or improving the environmental values \u200b\u200bthat may be affected by the contract.

Finally, departments or agencies to which they subscribe to public business groups develop a plan for sustainability of the group where the measures for support, reinforcement and additional coordination of business initiatives and work out arrangements for monitoring and control of the group's objectives.