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greater certainty after elections expected

Argentina's laws prohibit the publication and dissemination of pre-election polls and surveys from 48 hours before voting began and until the final vote. This information may not be published inside the country.

An Argentine government's victory in legislative polls on Sunday to boost the country's bonds and would allow creditors conflicts with global closing, while a defeat would accelerate the fall of the peso and this benefit in the bag exporting companies.

Argentina held

Sunday elections for half of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate and the Government believes that the outcome is key to ensuring good governance in more than two-year term remaining.

Analysts see the polls as a true referendum on the management problems of the president, Cristina Fernandez.

Analysts believe the ruling a victory would clear political uncertainty that currently affects the formation of portfolios among institutional investors.

"The election result will help open the outlook for the remainder of the year. To hold the ruling majority (legislative), would help give more certainty to the bonds, "said Marcelo Trovato, an analyst with the Social Investment Fund brokerage.

added that this scenario ensures the ability to move forward with issues outstanding as the Paris Club or "holdouts".

Argentina has closed access to voluntary debt markets by the international crisis and the risk of foreclosure from creditors not involved in the debt exchange in 2005 completed the country.

addition

Argentina still does not fulfill its promise to cancel debt with Paris Club 6,700 million dollars.

"If (the government) lose, the risk of further peso depreciation and capital outflows by increasing uncertainty would erode the progress of the bonds," said Trovato.

In 2009, the accumulated weight fell by 9.5 percent, the bonds earn on average 20 percent and shares climb 45 percent.

"A shares (the defeat) would give more selectivity, because winning the Government would increase the fears of nationalization of businesses, and lost, this would be reduced and would favor exporting firms," \u200b\u200bhe said.

Financing

The crisis ended the possibility of holding direct placement of bonds with Venezuela, which allowed the country to finance without going to the markets, and the government now goes to state agencies for surplus obtain funds.

The Government also makes exchanges of bonds maturing in the short term by others of greater length.

"Investors will have a more accurate after the election. Of losing most (legislation) would give bond volatility and the dollar because it would appear that the Government would be more tense by the lack of response in the Congress, "said Marcelo Paccione, analyst ConsulCapital.

" Stocks most affected by this situation would be the bank, and win (the Government), bonds could yields continue shrinking because the government would make sure to continue with its strategy of repurchases of securities and maturities stretching, "he said.

Recent surveys give the officer a narrow victory in different districts, among which stands out the influential Buenos Aires province, where former President Nestor Kirchner, husband of the president, is the first candidate for deputy.

These surveys generated uncertainty in the market as they are the first elections in years in which no outcome is less clear.

"After a long and formidable rally," recently was profit taking in bonds "to investors fear a negative reaction of markets compared to the results of the election," said the consultant Delphos Investment.

Argentina's economy deepens its slowdown in 2009, hit by declines in industrial production and consumption increasingly affected by international crisis.

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The Singular Kitchen, as its logo iso it says "Unique Cooking for Single People." A leader in its market dedicated to kitchen furniture very original designs. This page will show how unique features are you proponiéndote design your own kitchen.

Now if we go to the home page, we appreciate the originality with which they present their products, each person with different needs, tastes and needs, a great way to make the page more didactic combining motion pictures with sound.

excellent thing is that this site gives us the opportunity to design our own kitchen, so for all those lovers of design I can assure you will have a good time to investigate in design and cooking styles are concerned.

I consider appropriate, or as a visitor to the page I see that in the internal menu, the icons are too technical, would change the image of them (online planner, comparator element, protocol, consumer). Another thing to replace is the steering wheel driver that leads us to "take control", usually the kitchen relates to the female, while everything about racing is directly related with the opposite sex.

The Singular Kitchen offers not only kitchen furniture, but also a place where you feel comfortable and share moments with your loved ones.

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Analysis Economic Indicators: fact or fiction.

official statements tend to show an optimism that in our view far exceeds expectations. Indicators should be calculated and especially read properly.

It

idle at this point to mention the fact that the Kirchner government has destroyed the statistical computing system making a farce of bad taste. The futility of official data is now common knowledge and nobody in their right mind can doubt this assertion. Even officials of the ruling party, such as chief of staff, admitted on several occasions that it is essential to end the adulteration of data. This, however, has not happened. It is obvious that the government is reluctant to admit the reality, which is nonetheless our view one of the most worrisome of the current situation. Denying the obvious is always the worst case scenario.

When last days the president referred to the tax revenue in May, wrapped data absolutely unjustified euphoria. 12.5% \u200b\u200bnominal annual growth in revenue is a long way to demonstrate the economic success. On the contrary, if the inflation rate estimated for the annual period is considered, according to various estimates, between 20 and 24%, it is obvious that the revenue has dropped precipitously.

The actual tax revenue in the period grew by 9.5%, the lowest nominal growth last quarter. In February, the growth had been 14% and 23% in March.

to all this we add the fact that the proceeds of these months include the diversion of contributions that the workers did last year at AFJP and now they do more, we indeed far more important drop in the amount of revenue.

AFIP continues the policy not to refund taxes to exporters with arguments that do not coincide with their true watchdog function, as referred to transactions in countries known as tax havens and the need to demonstrate the accuracy and certainty of such operations and in the meantime taxes are not returned, which is obviously a very different concept. These tax refunds fell more than 38%.

While VAT DGI was within the expected values \u200b\u200bfor the loss of currency value, the VAT of the National Customs Administration collapsed more than 30%, reflecting both the collapse of and control exports and limiting imports.

In terms of excise, if we consider the snuff (which experienced increases in tax rates (the year up just over 10%, which is certainly negative when compared to real inflation.

The Monotributo not exceed 8% annual increase in its collection. The tax on financial transactions rose just 2%, always in the same period. The falls are impressive.

estate activity in turn brought down about 30% tax on transfers of property (ITI). The export duty for almost 10% of decline, and import -24.5%.

The truth is that revenue has been growing in the same extent as do the costs. In particular the remuneration of the State, which have been rising proportionately about 4 times the increase in income.

The industry has fallen by 13% interanual en el primer cuatrimestre. Pero el INDEC dice que en igual período el sector cayó apenas el 1,8%. La construcción cayó en abril un 7,5% (3% según el INDEC). En los supermercados las ventas cayeron más del 20% en abril (para el INDEC subieron un 13%).

La presidenta, entonces, presenta de manera exitosa y valorativa del modelo una serie de datos que en realidad están significando todo lo contrario. Obviamente que no se trata únicamente de la situación de la economía argentina, a la que sin dudas hay que enmarcar en un panorama internacional sumamente inestable y en general bastante recesivo.

No sabemos si la euforia is due to ignorance or a deliberate pose. In either case it is a negative. For investors, their advisers and general economic science professionals not ignore these data. We prefer not to draw conclusions that go beyond the framework around even a comment like this one opinion.

All of this increases the outflow of capital and put all sorts of obstacles to curb imports, and Commerce Secretary incurs absurdities such as wanting someone to care (which is) exported by the same value (rebuscátelas say he told a business, buy olives and export them, or wine ...). These issues were not even playing the ideology, since we are on the dump full of ignorance and abuse of power.

complete this overview in mind that in our opinion, despite all the negative indicators that we are mentioning, the situation is so critical, unless the setbacks on decisions follow the course they are having.

is that right now what we see is a very serious tendency to surrealism. Not worth elaborate on what the Ministry of Commerce, or what note the euphoria of the president, that if it's ignorance can be dangerous. If measures are so poor as to push the country the brink or not, we can not pass him.

The figures are not so bad, and some recovery in the values \u200b\u200bof commodities are certainly favorable. At the same time, if the world is a certain revival (we are not at all sure that this happens so important, at least this year), external demand may also promote the local market.

But, however, some de facto president's comments put us on edge. Indeed, Nestor Kirchner said he would not devalue after June 28. And he said, said he would be crazy if I did. Kirchner actually believe that a devaluation depends exclusively on what he has.

words, a person who has spent fifty long years, lawyer and a long career as mayor, governor and president of law and fact, has not yet learned that it depends on his will no currency devaluation. And yet, believe it. Or to believe that he believes. Devaluations occur beyond the intentions, which means you have not wanted the acting official, can not help it. This has happened too many times in Argentina in the second half of the 20th century and even earlier this century, when the government tried to bring duhaldista the dollar at $ 1.40 and a few weeks it had reached $ 4 .- (by the way: when some economists were predicting a dollar from $ 10 .- for the end of 2002, they are branded and some professionals still do, of geniuses for having failed their forecasts, but no such professional, current rulers do mention the amazing blunder of Remes Lenicov, Duhalde and company in that year.)

indicators in relation to energy stores or stocks livestock and dairy farming are downright negative. Poverty rates have grown dramatically over the past two years if properly measure statistics. Investments do not come to Argentina and is That which once was called Beatriz Nofal to try to attract any case. Capital flight is so visible that desperate characters like the secretary of government, the truth is that I do not know who gang. Where is the boom and the expectation of a promising future model?

why do not fully understand the reasons for the euphoria. The reasons why the president travels to Switzerland to lecture the rest of the world about what to do to come forward.

We managed our debt, or with the holdouts or the Paris Club. We maintain a system of subsidies absolutely denier of reality pricing. The appropriation of funds of the administrators has led to all sorts of returnees from ANSES essentially designed to retain the jobs where you really need management and management. and not be made friends of the directors.

We have serious problems of external financing. There is talk of a restructuring with the IMF, the government refuses to recognize. The problem with embargoes and blockades of Argentine funds abroad is far more serious than transcends. Local funding is almost non-existent being who should be in the order of 50% of the funds of the system, as official banks hold deposits by that percentage the total (and presumably are not greedy and unjust as the president suggested for all except bankers, we assume, the official banks and Carlos Heller-).

And we end with a reflection: a famous phrase that Luis Barrionuevo respect that we should stop stealing for two years, we should add that we should stop lying for that period. Or at least stop believe it.

Source: Hector Trillo

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invest in franchises? Yes, but not all

franchises Can be a real alternative in times of crisis? Has recently been installed in Spain a company under the franchise system, presumed to be immune to the crisis. It is the Israeli company in the sector of Education Helen Doron Early Inglés. The owner says its system favors the entrepreneurs who do not want to take excessive risks, as the facilities that are open are always under the umbrella of the parent company.

But the success of this business is due to its franchise system depends on the industry or trying? In times of economic hardship we've seen fast food-Burger King, McDonald's ... - have seen their bills increase significantly due to demand with cheap prices and the need to save time. But this is also due to brand a distinct advantage. Establishments with the same prices and lower quality have closed the doors because they can not cope with the costs and the progressive shortage of customers. For Donald'so Mc Burger King, the brand is already located and verified by the client, so the chances of success are multiplied.

Burger King's case is illustrative. English market leader in this business and on, year after year, being the company that picks up more resources. It has more than 11,800 restaurants in 74 countries and does so with a system of independent franchisees. Many of the establishments are managed as a family business, so that the dependence of the franchise is in a sense, relative.

But do not confuse insurance franchise business. Despite having the protection of the parent company, it may not be enough to keep institutions solvent and various cities. This is because the franchise business can be profitable if the consumer awareness of the brand as it is affordable to the pocket or on the contrary, it can be bad if it's a brand tarnished by the crisis.