Argentina's laws prohibit the publication and dissemination of pre-election polls and surveys from 48 hours before voting began and until the final vote. This information may not be published inside the country.
An Argentine government's victory in legislative polls on Sunday to boost the country's bonds and would allow creditors conflicts with global closing, while a defeat would accelerate the fall of the peso and this benefit in the bag exporting companies.
Sunday elections for half of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate and the Government believes that the outcome is key to ensuring good governance in more than two-year term remaining.
Analysts see the polls as a true referendum on the management problems of the president, Cristina Fernandez.
Analysts believe the ruling a victory would clear political uncertainty that currently affects the formation of portfolios among institutional investors.
"The election result will help open the outlook for the remainder of the year. To hold the ruling majority (legislative), would help give more certainty to the bonds, "said Marcelo Trovato, an analyst with the Social Investment Fund brokerage.
added that this scenario ensures the ability to move forward with issues outstanding as the Paris Club or "holdouts".
Argentina has closed access to voluntary debt markets by the international crisis and the risk of foreclosure from creditors not involved in the debt exchange in 2005 completed the country.
Argentina still does not fulfill its promise to cancel debt with Paris Club 6,700 million dollars.
"If (the government) lose, the risk of further peso depreciation and capital outflows by increasing uncertainty would erode the progress of the bonds," said Trovato.
In 2009, the accumulated weight fell by 9.5 percent, the bonds earn on average 20 percent and shares climb 45 percent.
"A shares (the defeat) would give more selectivity, because winning the Government would increase the fears of nationalization of businesses, and lost, this would be reduced and would favor exporting firms," \u200b\u200bhe said.
Financing
The crisis ended the possibility of holding direct placement of bonds with Venezuela, which allowed the country to finance without going to the markets, and the government now goes to state agencies for surplus obtain funds.
The Government also makes exchanges of bonds maturing in the short term by others of greater length.
"Investors will have a more accurate after the election. Of losing most (legislation) would give bond volatility and the dollar because it would appear that the Government would be more tense by the lack of response in the Congress, "said Marcelo Paccione, analyst ConsulCapital.
" Stocks most affected by this situation would be the bank, and win (the Government), bonds could yields continue shrinking because the government would make sure to continue with its strategy of repurchases of securities and maturities stretching, "he said.
Recent surveys give the officer a narrow victory in different districts, among which stands out the influential Buenos Aires province, where former President Nestor Kirchner, husband of the president, is the first candidate for deputy.
These surveys generated uncertainty in the market as they are the first elections in years in which no outcome is less clear.
"After a long and formidable rally," recently was profit taking in bonds "to investors fear a negative reaction of markets compared to the results of the election," said the consultant Delphos Investment.
Argentina's economy deepens its slowdown in 2009, hit by declines in industrial production and consumption increasingly affected by international crisis.
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